Deutschland
This is https://jim-quinn51.blogspot.com/ The Great Depression,
and half way, an MIT Economics Report, leading me to think about how to Design Government, in an extrapolation .......
and taken from there, copied into "starters for ten" :
https://jim-quinn3.blogspot.com/ UK Constitution
A bit more digging......and a sort of overview if I may.... 20th August 2024
1) The “Jewish Question” was an 18th and 19th century problem in the whole of Europe. The Jews wanted to be a political party? as well as a religion…… In WW1, 12,000 Deutsch Jew contributed to the Deutsch War Effort…….
2) Deutschland lost WW1 -
General Hindenburg refused to accept his military had failed (not just USA UK winning though of course they did in numbers), and blamed the civilians in Government. Paul von Hindenburg coined the phrase "stab in the back" as part of his campaign to avoid responsibility. He became Deutsch President on 12 May 1925 until his death on 2 August 1934.
The cruel money men in USA and UK FORCED huge financial Reparations on Deutschland, to pay as much of their war costs as they could SCREW. Was WW1 entirely the Deutsch fault? Wow, NO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Plan : Reparations were set at 36 billion Riechsmarks payable to 1988. Including interest, the total came to 112 billion Reichsmarks. The average annual payment was approximately two billion Reichsmarks (US$473 million in 1929).
4) the Weimar Constitution also introduced a PR election system (Party List PR) without a Party voting-numbers threshold, leading to many extreme parties gaining seats, because of the Desperate Economic Situation and a "DO SOMETHING, ANYTHING " approach to relieve poverty, and a drain on the Reichsmark, led to such extreme views in Reichstag seats gains. One (Peasant something) party gained 3 seats out of 647, with only 0.7% of the national vote - but WORSE was that there were 26 Parties elected in the 1930 election, and 40 in the 1933 election! Israel has a similar election system, but has a threshold of 3.25% for a Party to win seats.
The big gainers were the Nazi party and the fewer, but numerous Communists. The Nazi’s won because they promised “heaven” - people believed them that they could put the economy right and reduce the 30% unemployment - the Nazi were good salesmen, and formed a Coalition - they trimmed their speeches depending on who they were talking to.......everything sounded great, the Nazi Party would cure us!
In the second quarter of 1931, something suddenly got worse, Government policy suddenly became quite wrong - see the MIT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, report Conclusions below.
In 1924 the Nazi Party gained 3.0% of the National Vote
1928 election 2.6% Great Depression started 1928/9
1930 election 18.3%,
1931 not an election, BUT President Hindenburg wanted a new right wing flavour
so dismissed the SPD Government and appointed Heinrich Bruning as
Chancellor, and to rule by decree as S48 of the Weimar Constitution allowed and
ignore any Parliamentary Majority, but to tell them what he was doing.
Reparations to be denied, Treaty of Versaille to go.
1932 election July: 37.3% so Nazi's NSDAP were the largest - 84% turnout,
44,211,216 voters, and 14.3% Communists KPD, but not welcome to the Nazi's
for a Coalition. The Franz von Papen Cabinet ruled by decree, supported by only
the 44 seats of DNVP 5.9% and DVP 1.2%, so another election in November.
1932 election November: Nazi's 33.1%, KPD 16.9%, but again no possible coalition,
so election planned for March 1933. Hitler in power by decree when appointed
Chancellor in January 1933 by President Hindenburg and Papen. His SS and
SA teams immediately terrorise, repress, use propaganda, and then "monitor"
the March 1933 election. Wow. Ruling by decree not Parliament did this.
How publicly was this known? in UK media too?
1933 election March: Nazi 43.9% and Coalition Government Formed with DNVP
8.3%. A sham election! KPD had 12.3% of the vote. Nazi Stormtroopers
violently campaign against all other party! .....and Britain does what? Japan and
Deutschland leave the League of Nations in 1933. Britain and France, the two
most influential members, ignored the League in their efforts to appease Hitler
- actions that arguably led to the outbreak of the Second World War.
23 March 1933, Enabling Act, Hitler abolishes all other Parties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
4A) And just to say STV PR is safe from the "no threshold" Deutsch PR system resulting in 26, some very extreme, Parties in the Reichstag in 1930 :
In Northern Ireland and Scotland we have an STV election system of PR, Proportional Representation, but it has a local minimum-Quota-needed few-number seats, not a ONE Region Nation. The Quota is the total number of acceptable votes divided by "the number of seats plus one". In Scotland's 2022 South Lanarkshire Local Council Ward 1 for example, their Quota was 1479 votes (= about 20% of 7393 votes total) for each of 4 candidates, and the 7 candidates votes in ascending order, were 181, 230, 737, 1082, 1678, 1742 and 1743 at Stage 1 (which is the 1st preference votes sums).
In Ward 9, the Quota was 1678 (= about 25% of 6709) for each of 3 seats, and the votes were 18, 110, 142, 1031, 1041, 1248, 1339, 1780 at Stage 1. STV then uses voters 2nd and 3rd preferences, to increase the votes that did not achieve Quota, at later Stages of the process, and eliminates the low ones, and when a candidate then achieved Quota, they had a seat. Both Ward's 1 and 9 actually did elect 4 and 3 Councillors respectively! And so did the other 18 Wards......
Clearly there is no way that the 1919 Deutsch voting system which elected a candidate with less than 0.7% of the total acceptable votes, could happen here! Quota stops it for each and every Ward of the 20 total, and thus the whole Council Members all have at least Quota number of votes. And it works safely in Eire elections too: https://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2020&cons=5108
I propose 4 MP per STV Constituency - this makes it quick and easy to join 4 of the latest FPTP single MP Constituency together (each having about the same size electorate), and they can all compete with each other on an equal basis, to produce the first 4 MP result..... I think 3 MP is too few to collectively reflect everybody's preferences, and 5 would slow the count significantly and without much additional policy alternative. A Party can put forward more than one Candidate.
I propose no more than 3rd preference to the STV ballot paper, for 3 is relatively easy to understand by very many people across the Country. A 4th preference adds significant time to the count, and without much strong desire from the voter! Also, if the ballot paper gives more than 3 preferences, it becomes more unwieldy to count and potentially less understood by the voter, while some voters might think they HAVE to fill it in, and that may cause them to not bother to vote at all, because it is difficult to prioritise down to that deeper level.
4B) https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/thirties-britain/#top
Britain formed a National Government in 1931 through to 1939, because of the Great Depression and difficult financial control. The Prime Ministers leading this National Government of several Party and Independents throughout, were Ramsay MacDonald 1931 to 1935, Stanley Baldwin 1935 to 1937, and Neville Chamberlain 1937 to 1939. The government seemed incapable of any solution and reluctant to invest in public works to provide jobs, instead introducing the Means Test in 1931 that divided families and led to widespread hardship and bitterness. The response was a series of hunger marches by which the 3.5 million unemployed sought to draw attention to their plight. The impotence of the National Government also encouraged the growth of extremist political parties - as Deutschland also found.
5) A 2001, 67 page, Paper by MIT Department of Economics says that there were many possible causes for Deutschland’s economy failing – their Conclusion follows here :
https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2022-08/Made%20In%20Germany%20The%20German%20Currency%20Crisis%20of%20July_0.pdf
5) A 2001, 67 page, Paper by MIT Department of Economics says that there were many possible causes for Deutschland’s economy failing – their Conclusion follows here :
https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2022-08/Made%20In%20Germany%20The%20German%20Currency%20Crisis%20of%20July_0.pdf
“Page 40 :
Conclusion (my Red “helps” from info earlier in the paper)
Keynes said during a discussion of the Young Plan in July 1929 that, “even if it were foreseen, the announcing of a moratorium would so damage Germany’s credit that a crisis would be precipitated by the announcement.” He was right. Chancellor Brüning’s announcement that Germany could pay no more Reparations generated a run on the mark in which banks failed and currency transactions were controlled. The ensuing run was on the Reichsmark, not banks, because the fear was that the German Government, not the Grossbanken (major banks), would be unable to pay their bills.
A) Could the banking crisis have been avoided? Yes. Brüning abrogated his
international obligations in three ways during the spring and summer of 1931. He
promoted customs union, geared up to stop Reparations payments, and imposed currency controls. He did them in this order, placing great strain on banks. Had he done these three acts in any almost other order, German banks would not have failed. Had Brüning gone off gold by devaluing or imposing currency controls before one of the other announcements, German banks would have survived. (As a Design Engineer, I have no experience of, and do know, what these three mean in Design Terms, so why an "other order" - I know that the Market (which?) is far bigger than Government can Control it's own exchange rate and that thus, the £ GBP was allowed to float within the market many years ago, but long after WW2 as I recollect hearing it in the media. What do they mean by "gone off Gold"? Sell their holdings? But maybe I get "promoted Customs Union" - like in the EU, reduce tariffs/taxes by others as in the opposite high tariff UK Brexit?)
B) Could the currency crisis have been avoided? (Currency means exchange rate? no financier I ....) That is a harder question. Adherence to the gold standard caused problems for countries far more stable than the Weimar Republic. It is unlikely that Brüning could have avoided going off gold in the end. Had he thought ahead, it could have been done more gracefully and with less damage to the German economy.
We therefore conclude that the German crisis of 1931 was a currency crisis caused
by domestic political actions. True, banks failed, and the international economy
constrained Germany. But the primary actions that led to the crisis of July 1931 were German, taken by Chancellor Heinrich Brüning in response to political pressures facing him and his supporters. The German crisis of 1931 was made in Germany. And we draw another lesson as well from this analysis: The terms of the celebrated debate over the so-called “Borchardt thesis” need to be recast.
Borchardt, K., Perspectives on Modern German Economic History and Policy. 1991, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Recent work showing that political forces in favor of reflation did exist inside the Weimar regime have made an important contribution. But it is time to acknowledge that the truly significant political coalition that failed only by a hair’s breadth was transnational. Put simply, there were powerful political forces in both France and Germany that perceived the advantages of an internationally cooperative strategy. This cross-national coalition always faced major obstacles, but as late as the Spring of 1931, its failure was not obvious. Indeed, the cause of Franco-German cooperation, if not reconciliation, appeared to be making great strides forward. What destroyed it was, purely and simply, the German government’s decision to pursue Drang nach Osten (spread to the East) It is all very well to say, as Duisberg and other apologists for the policy did, that this decision was a response to pressures for “imperial preference” among the allies.
C) But only the Deutsch reckless pursuit of “Mitteleuropa” (toward Poland) destroyed the possibility of French financing for Germany. Stabilizing Germany by this means was clearly a goal of French Foreign Minister Aristide Briand’s policy, and he came heartbreakingly close to bringing it off.
What Borchardt (1991 book) and his followers now owe the rest of us is an answer to one simple question: Are they prepared to argue that German business groups and policymakers also had “no choice,” no “Handlungspielraum”(scope for action) in this decision to swallow central Europe? That is what the denial of the possibility of an international version of reflation, if not full throated “Keynesianism” requires.
As late as March, 1931, it seemed not a remote contingency, but a reasonable bet – one that even bankers were willing to take, but Second Quarter 1931 saw dramatic failure. Once the crisis began, panic spread and everything fell apart. (The World withdrew their money – only the French were there to rescue them, but Deutsch Mitteleuropa policy destroyed it : “if you do not want us” OR “turning your back on us A” interpretation, led to French Government support for French Foreign Minister Artiste Briand’s funding idea to stop.).
“
Page 52 : Duisberg headed the famous Reichsverband der Deutschen Industrie, the leading (but not the only) big business association in Germany. He was also a top official of the giant chemical company, as Moldenhauer had been. The RDI had begun pressing for the fall of the government as soon as the Young Plan cleared the parliament.
“
Page 52 : Duisberg headed the famous Reichsverband der Deutschen Industrie, the leading (but not the only) big business association in Germany. He was also a top official of the giant chemical company, as Moldenhauer had been. The RDI had begun pressing for the fall of the government as soon as the Young Plan cleared the parliament.
The MIT Paper does not say what to do in future…….surely a need for Public and Banking Policy learning? What is poor currency management for example? Has the World changed – at all? USA and Britain’s banking crisis of about 2008/9, seems not to have learnt from the 1930’s at all – but I am unable to investigate everything.
However, MIT may now be introducing engineering thinking into Economic Affairs, so they may be learning, for a much better understanding of it, and then lead the Bachelor degree Economists!?
What does the new Labour Government think of all this – 1930’s to 2008’s ish? Previous UK Conservative Government adopted austerity, having obviously NOT consulted good economists at all. Incidentally a UK Chartered Economist has NO experience at all, for they are granted that title merely by passing the Economics Bachelor exam………Artists not Scientists…..
Thinkers needed please……which means investigators. People who dig for info, and dig again, for "am I sure?" asking questions about what is found, and constructing a logic to explain/present new understanding.
Deliberate Programme of economic policy differences investigation needed – hey am I the only one looking at China’s differences…..is there ANY Economist Policy of Learning at all? Just lots of guesswork?, and no proper investigative follow up published in the media it seems. What does UK Government “Economic” policy actually mean? Rubbish, for nowhere have I seen a UK Balance of Trade report or chart (Export earnings minus Import buying), and I have requested it twice from the OBR and then copied that to The Prime Minister after further time with no response either (Sir Keir Starmer, who is First Lord of the Treasury) – how else do you know whether your Nation is earning ANYTHING?
6) Tony Blair in Gloucester made a speech in about 2001 to Labour Party members and I had taken an interest in my local MP, David Drew, by helping distribute party leaflets by post – I wanted to learn what elections were about, and Labour has an office in Stroud when nobody else did. The Blair speech was amazing cheerful, it all sounded so good, and cheers often, but afterwards I thought “not much there……..” the Nazi Party too offering wonders for the economy after the start of the Great Depression, with "not much there"....Solutions need to be designed not just sprinkled!
7) Karl Marx in 1843 had a very significant effect - anti capitalist, he said the (capitalist) Jews had to go too, and thus the poor would benefit - the Communist Party in Deutschland began building on the “Stab in the Back” of Hindenburg, which had resulted in many people (not a majority) rumouring, and sniping, that the Jews had not helped Deutschland in WW1 (it seems only 12,000 Jews were in the WW1 military), and a few Jews were big industrialists – the prime reason for Communism has always been to help the poor, instead of the RICH in their Monarchies across Europe. In November 1932 Deutsch elections, the Communists won 16.9% of the vote, so the majority were scared of their policies?, and Hitler too, destroying them after the 1932 Enabling Act.
In my totally unbiased view last year, and after more digging, Communism is NOT a bad policy, no matter what the Rich Capitalist "I AM RIGHT, YOU ARE WRONG" people say. There is UNDHR work to be done there too, but the poor are far better understood and cared for than capitalism does and causes, and better recognised as Human beings who need help. USA and France withdraw help from very poor Niger in 2024, because THEY were not going to get enough profit in future, for Niger (change of Government, no matter how for that is up to Niger Internally, which USA France Decided was Wrong for "THEY ARE RIGHT"), implicitly wanted USA France to take less than the huge 70% they had been taking! USA and France reaction making a poor Nation POORER.....and taking much from poor Niger's resources - of uranium particularly. Capitalism is also Rotten Moral Code!
Britain should NOT have rescued French monarchy people from The Revolution in about 1789 (“The Scarlet Pimpernel” (film) has been posted as the Great British Rescuer of the Monarchists, with no concern at all for the starving peasants caused by these people!). Britain's Charles II Restoration of the Monarchy after Cromwell was in 1660, so the French Monarchists were considered “good, familiar” people in 1789? Forgetting the evil James II kick out, incoming William and Mary – the French were IN the Monarchy football team evidently, denying their evil gimme gimme attitude – did the British Media hide the peasants plight too?
Britain has also changed the record of its 1846 Irish Famine history in Ireland over their nasty money men attitude (we will "only" give you money if you sell us your food!) – the Roscommon Museum in Ireland that I visited in 1995, has been closed by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement!
JQ Conclusion
Sounds to me that Good Government for ANY Nation, needs a top group of Qualified Problem Solvers, triggered and questioned by democratically elected ordinary MP people, who shout what they want improved, with an indication of Priority, and MP control the money, as in tax collection, and what to spend it on.
NOT AT ALL like the USA many idiot Presidents (including Trump and Biden, both adopting a policy that finally destroyed Afghanistan’s females futures), who seem never to consult anybody except their own Political friends…..and BEND to the UNeducated masses media/polls IGNORING good moral code and implicitly the UNDHR.
Winston Churchill’s fighting rhetoric, but poor military engineering (Canberra jet should have been 1943, not 1947 – Deutschland won the engineering investment war by miles, but luckily for Churchill, Beaverbrook and Eisenhower, Hitler concentrated on the Eastern Front).
Maggie Thatcher, killer dictator not persuader (Miners, Mental Health Act and Argentina), Tony Blair making A level exams way too easy to University horror, Gordon Brown’s Glamour HS2 looking for a need when there was none (capacity was need not speed), David Cameron’s idiot planning EU Referendum (merely advisory, then suddenly mandatory - with NO threshold of votes for such a potential BIG policy change), Boris Johnson’s lies and racism (Brexit, Obama’s parentage, and pandemic parties), Liz Truss money panic extremes, Rishi Sunak’s I AM DEMOCRACY not you Protesters, and long time support for Bully Israel, until Gaza Arab deaths exceeded 30,000 (not 2,000 !)……
THUS
JQ Conclusion
Sounds to me that Good Government for ANY Nation, needs a top group of Qualified Problem Solvers, triggered and questioned by democratically elected ordinary MP people, who shout what they want improved, with an indication of Priority, and MP control the money, as in tax collection, and what to spend it on, but allow us to comment/question to ensure thoughtful policy.
6) Tony Blair in Gloucester made a speech in about 2001 to Labour Party members and I had taken an interest in my local MP, David Drew, by helping distribute party leaflets by post – I wanted to learn what elections were about, and Labour has an office in Stroud when nobody else did. The Blair speech was amazing cheerful, it all sounded so good, and cheers often, but afterwards I thought “not much there……..” the Nazi Party too offering wonders for the economy after the start of the Great Depression, with "not much there"....Solutions need to be designed not just sprinkled!
7) Karl Marx in 1843 had a very significant effect - anti capitalist, he said the (capitalist) Jews had to go too, and thus the poor would benefit - the Communist Party in Deutschland began building on the “Stab in the Back” of Hindenburg, which had resulted in many people (not a majority) rumouring, and sniping, that the Jews had not helped Deutschland in WW1 (it seems only 12,000 Jews were in the WW1 military), and a few Jews were big industrialists – the prime reason for Communism has always been to help the poor, instead of the RICH in their Monarchies across Europe. In November 1932 Deutsch elections, the Communists won 16.9% of the vote, so the majority were scared of their policies?, and Hitler too, destroying them after the 1932 Enabling Act.
In my totally unbiased view last year, and after more digging, Communism is NOT a bad policy, no matter what the Rich Capitalist "I AM RIGHT, YOU ARE WRONG" people say. There is UNDHR work to be done there too, but the poor are far better understood and cared for than capitalism does and causes, and better recognised as Human beings who need help. USA and France withdraw help from very poor Niger in 2024, because THEY were not going to get enough profit in future, for Niger (change of Government, no matter how for that is up to Niger Internally, which USA France Decided was Wrong for "THEY ARE RIGHT"), implicitly wanted USA France to take less than the huge 70% they had been taking! USA and France reaction making a poor Nation POORER.....and taking much from poor Niger's resources - of uranium particularly. Capitalism is also Rotten Moral Code!
Britain should NOT have rescued French monarchy people from The Revolution in about 1789 (“The Scarlet Pimpernel” (film) has been posted as the Great British Rescuer of the Monarchists, with no concern at all for the starving peasants caused by these people!). Britain's Charles II Restoration of the Monarchy after Cromwell was in 1660, so the French Monarchists were considered “good, familiar” people in 1789? Forgetting the evil James II kick out, incoming William and Mary – the French were IN the Monarchy football team evidently, denying their evil gimme gimme attitude – did the British Media hide the peasants plight too?
Britain has also changed the record of its 1846 Irish Famine history in Ireland over their nasty money men attitude (we will "only" give you money if you sell us your food!) – the Roscommon Museum in Ireland that I visited in 1995, has been closed by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement!
JQ Conclusion
Sounds to me that Good Government for ANY Nation, needs a top group of Qualified Problem Solvers, triggered and questioned by democratically elected ordinary MP people, who shout what they want improved, with an indication of Priority, and MP control the money, as in tax collection, and what to spend it on.
NOT AT ALL like the USA many idiot Presidents (including Trump and Biden, both adopting a policy that finally destroyed Afghanistan’s females futures), who seem never to consult anybody except their own Political friends…..and BEND to the UNeducated masses media/polls IGNORING good moral code and implicitly the UNDHR.
Winston Churchill’s fighting rhetoric, but poor military engineering (Canberra jet should have been 1943, not 1947 – Deutschland won the engineering investment war by miles, but luckily for Churchill, Beaverbrook and Eisenhower, Hitler concentrated on the Eastern Front).
Maggie Thatcher, killer dictator not persuader (Miners, Mental Health Act and Argentina), Tony Blair making A level exams way too easy to University horror, Gordon Brown’s Glamour HS2 looking for a need when there was none (capacity was need not speed), David Cameron’s idiot planning EU Referendum (merely advisory, then suddenly mandatory - with NO threshold of votes for such a potential BIG policy change), Boris Johnson’s lies and racism (Brexit, Obama’s parentage, and pandemic parties), Liz Truss money panic extremes, Rishi Sunak’s I AM DEMOCRACY not you Protesters, and long time support for Bully Israel, until Gaza Arab deaths exceeded 30,000 (not 2,000 !)……
THUS
JQ Conclusion
Sounds to me that Good Government for ANY Nation, needs a top group of Qualified Problem Solvers, triggered and questioned by democratically elected ordinary MP people, who shout what they want improved, with an indication of Priority, and MP control the money, as in tax collection, and what to spend it on, but allow us to comment/question to ensure thoughtful policy.
AND, A NEED ; Engineering Companies investment in Big Infrastructure is long term in that it will normally take more than Five Years to complete, so it goes beyond ONE Parliament, employing and keeping Skilled People at all Levels. Long Term Parliament commitment is best therefore......and given better Thinking and Planning of Design Options in Stage 2 of the Vee diagram, through encouragement of Business's to Think/Compete at Requirements Level, it could be that MP will agree longer term cost effectively too!
and
Jim
Jim Quinn BSc CEng FIMechE CPD 20th August 2024
Jim Quinn BSc CEng FIMechE CPD 20th August 2024
STV is better than FPTP elections.
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